Perun's video: Escalation Strategy Aid in Ukraine - How the West manages Russian nuclear threats and red lines

While not taking away from the immense sacrifices and efforts of the the involved forces, allied aid to Ukraine has been one of the decisive factors in the war so far. Ukraine has constantly sought new capabilities, while Russian media and politicians have often tried to stoke fears and warn against taking any additional steps. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats & comments: As well as all the usual caveats, the point to stress here is that escalation management is only one aspect of the decision making that likely informs Western aid levels. Politics, economics, and domestic fears and sentiments are other (non-exhaustive) examples Relevant news/reading: Russia warns over weapons: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-official-warns-west-of-global-catastrophe-for-arming-ukraine Russia placing nuclear force into heightened readiness https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60547473 Russia warns over F-16s: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-alexander-grushko-warns-west-f16-jets-ukraine-carries-enormous-risks-tass/ Russia warns over tanks: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warns-that-west-sending-ukraine-tanks-will-only-prolong-suffering-1772382 Putin issues further warnings - 2023 https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-update-russias-elite-ukraine-war-major-speech-2023-02-21/ Medvedev warning of nuclear war: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ally-medvedev-warns-nuclear-war-if-russia-defeated-ukraine-2023-01-19/ Russian warning that Leopards will be destroyed: https://tass.com/politics/1567091 Russia - Leopards won't matter https://tass.com/politics/1566995 Russia - Ukraine needs years to train on Leopards https://tass.com/politics/1566983 Russian reporting on the weak points of Leopard and Abrams https://tass.com/world/1567505 Russian expert on comparative value of Leopard vs T-62 https://iz.ru/1486940/2023-03-22/voennyi-istorik-rasskazal-ob-ispolzovanii-t-62m-v-ramkakh-spetcoperatcii Reporting on Scott Ritter's tanks are suicidal for Ukraine article https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/russia-abrams-leopard-2-tanks Russia placing nukes in Belarus: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/3/russia-to-put-nukes-in-belarus-near-nato-borders-envoy-says Reporting on the 'drowned leopard' claim... https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/04/14/leopards-are-in-kherson-weather-and-mud-killed-one-russia/ Sanctions as something that will make Russia stronger https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-russia-will-emerge-stronger-sanctions-will-rebound-west-2022-03-10/ The featured report on the Patriot claims https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/patriot-station-batteries-destroyed-hypersonic Tracker of German military aid to Ukraine: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992 Nadia Schadlow Incrementalism is throttling US support for Ukraine https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/incrementalism-throttling-us-support-ukraine Reporting on Dutch support for Ukrainian F-16 program https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-pm-says-talks-f-16s-ukraine-progressing-2023-05-04/ Scholtz saying Russia will not win in Ukraine https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/26/russia-will-not-win-the-war-in-ukraine-scholz Reminder on potential act of energy related escalation in 2022 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62732835v Japan pledging $5.5B in financial aid https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/02/20/national/japan-ukraine-fresh-aid/ RAND- Concepts and models of escalation (1980s) https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2007/R3235.pdf Michael Fitzsimmons - The false allure of escalation dominance https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/false-allure-escalation-dominance/ Aaron Miles - Escalation dominance is America's oldest new Nuclear strategy https://warontherocks.com/2018/09/escalation-dominance-in-americas-oldest-new-nuclear-strategy/ Norway planning multi-year support package https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3716658-norway-launching-eur-7b-fiveyear-defense-aid-program-for-ukraine.html France reminds that NATO is a nuclear alliance https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-says-putin-needs-understand-nato-has-nuclear-weapons-2022-02-24/ Germany announcing extended military support https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-send-ukraine-27-billion-military-aid-package/a-65612028 Lauren Sukin - rattling the nuclear saber https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/04/rattling-nuclear-saber-what-russia-s-nuclear-threats-really-mean-pub-89689 Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Escalation Management & Strategy In Ukraine 00:01:45 – What Am I Talking About 00:02:47 – Historical Escalation Management & Proxies 00:10:03 – Escalation Theory 00:21:49 – Red Lines & Escalation 00:39:34 – Russian Escalation Response 00:52:01 – Understanding Russia's Response 01:00:05 – Next Steps 01:08:31 – Conclusions 01:09:55 – Channel Update