GLOBAL DEFENSE's video: Is Russia preparing to conduct a nuclear test

Is Russia preparing to conduct a nuclear test? On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of the New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the United States. This treaty limits the size of both arsenals to 1,550 nuclear warheads deployed on 700 strategic delivery systems, which include intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and long-range bombers. It also provides a verification procedure that allows officials from each country to inspect nuclear sites in the other. While Russia has not officially withdrawn from the treaty, its suspension likely foreshadows the treaty’s demise. The immediate concern is a resumption of nuclear testing, which Putin mentioned as a possibility in his announcement, directing Rosatom, Russia’s state-run nuclear energy company, to begin preparations for testing. There are two main goals for Russia to resume nuclear testing. The first is to use nuclear tests as a tool of coercive diplomacy, timed to coincide with events of political or military importance. The tests could occur ahead of new offensives in Ukraine or an expansion of Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure. Beyond Ukraine, nuclear testing could precede efforts to destabilize other Russian neighbors, such as the potential plot to overthrow the Moldovan government. These nuclear tests would serve as signals that Russia is willing to use its arsenal in the event of US or NATO operations against Russia. The second goal is to improve Russia’s nuclear arsenal, as it is currently engaged in a major nuclear modernization program. This modernization impacts all three legs of Russia’s nuclear triad and includes both upgrades to existing capabilities and novel systems such as the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. If testing is to occur, it will most likely happen at Novaya Zemlya, a heavily militarized Arctic archipelago that was one of the Soviet Union’s main nuclear testing sites. The resumption of nuclear testing would increase the strategic value of the Arctic region to Moscow, which has increased the development of military infrastructure and capabilities in its far north over the past several years. Increasing Arctic militarization would have significant strategic consequences for other Arctic powers, all of whom are current or aspiring NATO members. The likely failure of diplomatic overtures to Moscow means that the United States and NATO must be ready to deal with the resumption of Russian nuclear testing. American nuclear testing is probably not necessary, but improving defenses in the Arctic region is. In addition to developing its own capabilities, the United States must work with critical Arctic partners such as Canada, Norway, and Denmark, and non-Arctic NATO members such as the United Kingdom and France should also engage with Arctic allies and ensure that their naval forces can