Max Fagin's video: Why are Tiangong s Reentry Predictions So Uncertain

What will happen when Tiangong 1 reenters the atmosphere this weekend, and why can't we predict exactly where it will come down? Short answer: Some angles and some atmosphere. The long answer will involve some math and throwing pinecones and paper airplanes off a building. CORRECTION: The orbital velocity at 4:23 should be 780,000 cm/sec, not 7.8 million cm/sec. Thanks to yanmanman for the catch! Sources for tracking Tiangong 1 on its final trip back to Earth: Live Updates Dashboard: http://www.aerospace.org/CORDSuploads/TiangongStoryboard.png Heavens Above http://www.heavens-above.com/TiangongHeight.aspx?lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=UCT ESA Space Debris Office http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018/03/26/tiangong-1-reentry-updates/ The Aerospace Corporation http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/ Current entry prediction: March 30 - April 2 Follow me for updates on Twitter @MaxFagin