Perun's video: Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine - Atomic Coercion Ukraine the Nuclear Threshold

Sponsored by Ground News: Go to https://ground.news/perun to compare news coverage, spot media bias, and avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription. We first discussed Russia's nuclear doctrine in 2022 - arguing that it suggested nuclear use was far less likely that some feared. Now, Russia is announcing changes to that doctrine, and so I want to look at what's changing, why, and what it might mean for the risk of nuclear war. Given the topic, expect the jokes to be a bit sparse... Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Reading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always): Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/ Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman September 15, 2022 https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1829920/?lang=en Medvedev on Telegram (2022) https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/203 Joint Statement on Ukraine (2022) https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-ukraine-2/ Reporting on Russia's dirty bomb claims (2022) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-doubles-down-dirty-bomb-claims-2022-10-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/indias-defence-minister-warns-against-nuclear-weapons-call-with-russian-2022-10-26/ https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3202353/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-holds-a-press-conference/ https://tass.com/politics/1526673 https://ren.tv/news/v-mire/1040152-polianskii-nazval-glavnuiu-tsel-kieva-pri-provokatsii-s-griaznoi-bomboi (India and China playing a role in deterring Russian nuclear use) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-china-helped-deter-russia-from-nuclear-use-says-blinken/articleshow/98228909.cms?from=mdr _vignette Belarus on Russian nuclear weapons in the country https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-lukashenka-russia-nuclear-weapons/32920346.html Infosheet on UK nuclear deterrence policy https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61eea6848fa8f505893f1e03/UK_Nuclear_Deterrence_Policy_Booklet.pdf Peter Dickinson - Putin will keep escalating his nuclear blackmail until it stops working https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-will-keep-escalating-his-nuclear-blackmail-until-it-stops-working/ Six Days in October (CSIS) - Lachlan MacKenzie https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-09/240903_MacKenzie_SixDays_October.pdf?VersionId=slf3As45eT_JKVIXpEsEUwq3SYttzFkP CSIS - Deter and Divide Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in Ukraine https://features.csis.org/deter-and-divide-russia-nuclear-rhetoric/ Discussion of Russia's changing nuclear doctrine https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-nuclear-doctrine-blackmail?lang=en https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-draws-nuclear-red-line-west-2024-09-27/ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjej0rvw0o 2018 US NPR https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-nuclear-posture-review-final-report.pdf Mariana Budjeryn - Bulletin of the atomic scientists - Why Russia is more likely to go nuclear in Ukraine if it's winning https://thebulletin.org/2024/10/why-russia-is-more-likely-to-go-nuclear-in-ukraine-if-its-winning/ Russia warns US off sending long-range weapons to Ukraine (2022) https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons-government-and-politics-c43d68369418ed2507f5432074d89932 Sarmat test failure https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-icbm-test-launch-failed/ https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/missile-dialogue-initiative/2024/09/russias-sarmat-icbm-woes/ Russia to stage nuclear exercises https://www.dw.com/en/would-russia-really-attack-ukraine-with-nuclear-weapons/a-69020821 Medvedev on nuclear use https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/22/russia-can-defend-new-regions-with-nuclear-weapons-medvedev-says https://tass.com/politics/1796377 Scholz citing escalation risk https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-cites-risk-escalation-deliver-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine/ Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions. Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character. Timestamps: 00:00 — Opening Words 01:28 — What Am I Talking About? 03:56 — Doctrine And Strategy 07:21 — Russian Nuclear Doctrine 15:22 — Nuclear Coercion In 2022 27:18 — The New Doctrine 31:39 — Catalyst 38:02 — The Threat 45:07 — Does Doctrine Matter? 46:54 — The Logic Of Nuclear (Non)Use 52:17 — Nuclear Blackmail 59:50 — Channel Update