Perun's video: Attrition Casualties the Winter War in Ukraine - losses force quality and force generation

Territory may be the most commonly used barometer for assessing the success or failure of the winter campaign, but just as important is the impact of the fighting on the forces. Attrition is intrinsically linked to war, as men and equipment are ground down by the effort and by enemy action. In this episode we look at loss estimates, discuss the challenges of attrition, and update on the efforts of both sides to make up losses and generate new offensive potential. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats/Corrections: At one point I make a reference to 'combat deaths' when i mean military deaths (hard to have non-combat-combat casualties) I also refer to pilots flying hundreds of hours per year, I meant per month in that example. I also incorrectly conflate Desert Storm and Shield - There are a number of other small errors of that type Rebuttal of statements/estimates advanced by others are general in nature and should be taken as merely my personal opinion on the matter I would also take my usual warning about data quality and limitations and multiply it as far as it will go on this one - attrition is hard to externally assess and, as noted, the data is tightly controlled and highly politically charged Sources/Reading: Credits to Oryx and Wartranslated as always Indian Standing Committee on Defence - March 2023 https://loksabhadocs.nic.in/lsscommittee/Defence/17_Defence_36.pdf UA repair figures https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3686694-ukroboronprom-has-repaired-more-than-3000-armored-vehicles-in-combat-areas.html RUSI - the air war in Ukraine https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf GAO/NSIAD-91-304 (Costs of Desert Storm/Shield) https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-91-304.pdf Testimony in response to Desert Storm/Shield cost projections https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1176252.pdf RU 400,000 contractors https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-recruiting-contract-soldiers-april-reports-2023-3 https://tass.com/defense/1048138 3:1 Rule https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA302819.pdf Loss estimates https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition https://zona.media/casualties https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-23/russia-180000-dead-wounded-soldiers-ukraine-conflict-norway/101883272 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/ https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3626014-presidents-office-says-ukrainian-army-lost-up-to-13000-soldiers-since-war-started.html https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/09/21/russian-defence-minister-shoigu-5937-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-news UA Offensive Guard https://www.kyivpost.com/post/12095 UA troops train on Leo2 https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/14/ukrainian-troops-train-on-leopard-2-tanks-in-poland #:~:text=Ahead%20of%20a%20highly%20anticipated,to%20be%20sent%20to%20Ukraine. GAO/NSIAD-92-20 Operation Desert Storm https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-92-20.pdf NSIAD-92-94 Abrams performance in Desert storm https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-92-94.pdf Wagners's odd recruitment choices https://www.rt.com/russia/573045-wagner-pornhub-recruitment-ad/ Russia HIMARs claims in media: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/22/russia-says-it-shot-down-4-himars-launchers-in-ukraine TASS on t-54/55 https://tass.com/pressreview/1593845 Ukrainians repairing Russian vehicles https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-mechanics-refurbish-captured-russian-tanks/32280903.html EU training efforts: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-eu-wants-to-train-30-000-ukrainian-soldiers-mass-media/ WW1 casualties per Library of Congress https://www.loc.gov/collections/world-war-i-rotogravures/articles-and-essays/events-and-statistics/mobilized-strength-and-casualty-losses/ CIT on T-54/55 https://notes.citeam.org/t-54?s=1 Selected loss graphs from leedrake5 https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine Timestamps: 00:00:00 -- Attrition & the winter war in Ukraine 00:01:05 -- WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT? 00:02:09 -- CASUALTIES & ATTRITION 00:04:22 -- the real drivers of losses 00:06:59 -- historical deviation or return to mean? 00:08:10 -- ESTIMATING CASUALTIES 00:11:40 -- mixed methods 00:15:01 -- illustrating the point: Russian estimates 00:19:54 -- THE COST OF THE WINTER FIGHTING 00:23:17 -- UKRAINIAN ACTIONS & RESPONSES 00:27:23 -- RUSSIAN ACTIONS & RESPONSE 00:33:13 -- OBSERVATIONS & ENDURANCE 00:37:57 -- EQUIPMENT LOSSES 00:38:05 -- combat loss claims 00:42:14 -- visually confirmed loss data 00:43:34 -- what it shows? 00:45:29 -- DEPRECIATION & CONSUMPTION 00:45:39 -- attrition is more than just combat losses 00:48:50 -- scale drives consumption 00:54:04 -- the capacity & readiness problem 00:57:33 -- Indian evidence? 00:58:40 -- DEALING WITH THE EQUIPMENT CHALLENGE 00:58:47 -- the Russian approach & the T-54 thing 01:03:19 -- Ukraine's foreign lifelines and trophy systems 01:07:47 -- estimating endurance 01:08:39 -- CONCLUSIONS 01:09:58 -- CHANNEL UPDATE