ghostsofevolution's video: CTL 5d - 7 Conifers of Colorado why topoclimate matters for range projections

Connie Barlow filmed wild populations of 7 conifer tree species in 2017 — all within a few hundred yards of one another. The concept of "topocliimate" is introduced, as described in a 2021 paper by James Worrall and Gerald Rehfeldt, and why it is a crucial consideration in highly complex topographies, such as this site in the Colorado Rockies, 9400-feet elevation. Timecoded table of topics: 00:05 Introduction by Connie Barlow, May 2017, at 9,400 ft elevation, west of Colorado Springs. 02:15 Seven conifers all within a few minutes walk: Engelmann Spruce, Limber Pine, Bristlecone Pine, Douglas-fir, Ponderosa Pine, Rocky Mountain Juniper, Pinyon Pine. 03:21 Intro by Connie Barlow, February 2022, of a new forestry concept important for climate adaptation: "TOPOCLIMATE." Latitude, elevation, slope, and aspect all contribute to "topoclimate" distinctions in topographically complex mountains. 05:04 Image comparing branchlets and cones of all 7 conifers onsite. 06:06 Forestry paper, "Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change," 2021, by James Worrall and Gerald Rehfeldt. Also, the 76 western tree species project of Rehfeldt and Crookston: "Plant Species and Climate Profile Predictions." 07:06 Field survey of all 7 conifer species within a few minutes walk at 9,400 foot ridgetop, owing to strong topoclimate diversity. 21:57 Tabletop comparison of branchlets and cones of all 7 conifers, plus Juniperus communis and Blue Spruce. 28:17 BRISTLECONE PINE - field observations of more specimens at two sites. 38:35 BRISTLECONE PINE - map of all locales, plus photos of the final site: the biggest trees. 39:38 MAPS of current distributions of all 7 species, with Bristlecone Pine doomed by climate change — unless "assisted migration." 42:40 Bristlecone pine shifting range suitability modelled for years 2030, 2060, 2090 shows likely extinction — so the need for "assisted migration" poleward. 44:54 History of Barlow's advocacy for "assisted migration" of an endangered "glacial relict" conifer trapped in Florida, Torreya taxifolia, began with her 2021 book, "The Ghosts of Evolution" and continues with her founding in 2005 of the citizen-led group "Torreya Guardians." (California torreya will also need help moving poleward.) Maps and images of Torreya Guardians actions: the group achieved seed production in Cleveland, Ohio, in 2018. Their website: http://www.torreyaguardians.org/ 47:09 Information and more videos on "assisted migration" of native trees in the USA are at: "Climate, Trees, and Legacy" webpage: https://thegreatstory.org/climate-trees-legacy.html OTHER REFERENCES: • "The future of subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Trajectories for Pinus aristata genetic lineages," 2018, by Malone, Schoettle, and Coop. Mentions "assisted migration" as a management tool for genotypes most resistant to White Pine Blister Rust. Portrays that competition with other tree species is the biggest risk during climate change because, "To understand the potential for bristlecone pine forests to be replaced by other forest types, we merged the suitable climate space for the dominant tree species of important forest types or zones.... Douglas fir, subalpine fir, and Englemann spruce constitute the upper subalpine forests. Limber pine and lodgepole pine were used to define the lower subalpine forests. Ponderosa pine and quaking aspen (i.e., lower elevation species) are grouped to represent species encroachment from the montane zone, and pinyon-juniper was evaluated to quantify southwestern lower elevation woodland species encroachment... Under current conditions, the climate space for upper subalpine forests has the greatest overlap with the bristlecone pine climate space (81%), followed by the climate space for lower sub- alpine forests (68%), species from the montane zone (67%) and pinyon pine woodlands (6%).... By 2090 the bristlecone pine climate space is entirely shared with the climate space of other forest types. The distribution for lower elevation species’ climate space shifts up in elevation, while bristlecone pine climate space is not present and overlap declines for all forest types climate space except for pinyon pine (+21%). The 2090 climate space for lower elevation species is more frequent between 3000m and 3500m, which coincides with declines in 2090 bristlecone pine climate space." https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0193481 • "The Oldest Known Rocky Mountain Bristlecone Pines (Pinus aristata Engelm.)", 1992, by Brunstein and Yamaguchi https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00040851.1992.12002955 • Ecological differences between Limber Pine and the Great Basin species of Bristlecone Pine are explored in, 2017, by Smithers et al., "Leap frog in slow motion: Divergent responses of tree species and life stages to climatic warming in Great Basin subalpine forests" https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13881