sirgog's video: POE How Orbs Of Conflict Work How Rigged They Are - Path of Exile - Discovered 3 21 Current 3 22

09-Oct-2023 Update: This appears still accurate in patch 3.22. Note that this was originally posted during the Reddit shutdown protest 3 months back. It's always 50-50... except when it isn't The Orb of Conflict drops from the Uber Maven, Maven and some Invitations, and is a very important crafting currency at endgame. But unlike most other currency items in PoE, its odds haven't been well documented - until now. Probability findings originally from blvcksvn on Reddit with the help of PoorFishWife, markov chain parts are my addition. Raw data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kF8gijkXOPCRld1FLbqfQAZYJ47K6uVL0EA6X3Mtfk4/edit =659213950 0:00 Intro 1:00 Quick note on the Reddit boycott & why I'm not linking the original post 1:38 Probabilities using one Orb of Conflict 2:30 Using statistics (Markov Chains) to extend this to repeat Orb use 4:06 Example of the Markov Chain approach, starting with Exquisite tier aura effect on a chest, and an Exceptional tier second mod 4:44 How long does it take to reach an endpoint on average? 5:00 How to make your own model of Orbs of Conflict (if you don't have a stats background) Markov Chain online calculator: https://www.statskingdom.com/markov-chain-calculator.html Join as a channel member to get access to perks (this helps fund the channel): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1SoHjGhDqK6h980sYsXjhg/join I've started streaming on Twitch! https://www.twitch.tv/sirgog will take you there. You can buy some POE microtransactions and/or games from my Nexus store, and I'll get a cut. Link: https://www.nexus.gg/sirgog I also have a merch store at https://merch.streamelements.com/sirgog if you want to buy anything there and can take tips at https://streamelements.com/sirgog/tip